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Explain a Likelihood Ranking Instead of Guessing a Number

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The Mathematics of Maybe: Introduction to Probability · Chance, randomness and the probability scale · 4:00

You'll learn: Rank the chapter’s everyday events and explain the assumptions behind each judgement.

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Explain a Likelihood Ranking Instead of Guessing a Number

4:00

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Explain a Likelihood Ranking Instead of Guessing a Number

You'll learn: Rank the chapter’s everyday events and explain the assumptions behind each judgement.

Now playing

Same topic

Chance, randomness and the probability scale

5

Probability Measures How Likely Something Is
3:50
Probability Measures How Likely Something Is
You'll learn: Introduce uncertainty and likelihood using the chapter’s everyday questions.
Know What Could Happen Without Knowing What Will Happen
3:50
Know What Could Happen Without Knowing What Will Happen
You'll learn: Explain random experiments, individual trials and possible outcomes.
Why Can a Coin Toss Be a Fair Way to Decide?
3:39
Why Can a Coin Toss Be a Fair Way to Decide?
You'll learn: Connect fairness to a symmetric coin and an unbiased random toss.
Read the Probability Scale from Zero to One
3:47
Read the Probability Scale from Zero to One
You'll learn: Place impossible, less likely, even-chance, more likely and certain events on a scale.
Fractions, Decimals and Percentages Describe the Same Chance
4:01
Fractions, Decimals and Percentages Describe the Same Chance
You'll learn: Translate between numerical forms and interpret probability statements.

Next topic

Experimental and theoretical probability

8

Estimate Probability from What Actually Happened
4:00
Estimate Probability from What Actually Happened
You'll learn: Define experimental probability as event frequency divided by trials.
Run a Coin Experiment and Record the Results
3:49
Run a Coin Experiment and Record the Results
You'll learn: Organise a20-toss experiment and calculate observed relative frequencies.
A Paper Cup Has Three Outcomes—Are They Equally Likely?
3:53
A Paper Cup Has Three Outcomes—Are They Equally Likely?
You'll learn: Collect landing-position data and assign empirical probabilities.
Reason About a Fair Die Without Running an Experiment
3:47
Reason About a Fair Die Without Running an Experiment
You'll learn: Count favourable faces among six equally likely faces.
Count Letter Cards, Not Just Different Letters
3:52
Count Letter Cards, Not Just Different Letters
You'll learn: Use equally likely physical positions when a letter repeats.
Two Possible Results Do Not Automatically Mean Fifty-Fifty
4:03
Two Possible Results Do Not Automatically Mean Fifty-Fifty
You'll learn: Test whether equally likely outcomes are justified.
Why Experiment and Theory Can Give Different Answers
3:49
Why Experiment and Theory Can Give Different Answers
You'll learn: Compare relative frequency with the fair-model probability and discuss larger experiments.
A Coin and Die Have No Memory
3:49
A Coin and Die Have No Memory
You'll learn: Explain independence and the gambler’s fallacy.

Next topic

Using surveys and statistical evidence

2

Use a Survey to Estimate a Random Student’s Preference
4:03
Use a Survey to Estimate a Random Student’s Preference
You'll learn: Read a frequency table and find a probability for a randomly selected member of the observed group.
A Sample Can Suggest What a Larger Population Prefers
3:56
A Sample Can Suggest What a Larger Population Prefers
You'll learn: Scale sample proportions to estimate quantities for a whole school.