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Estimate Probability from What Actually Happened

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The Mathematics of Maybe: Introduction to Probability · Experimental and theoretical probability · 4:00

You'll learn: Define experimental probability as event frequency divided by trials.

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Estimate Probability from What Actually Happened

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Estimate Probability from What Actually Happened

You'll learn: Define experimental probability as event frequency divided by trials.

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Same topic

Experimental and theoretical probability

7

Run a Coin Experiment and Record the Results
3:49
Run a Coin Experiment and Record the Results
You'll learn: Organise a20-toss experiment and calculate observed relative frequencies.
A Paper Cup Has Three Outcomes—Are They Equally Likely?
3:53
A Paper Cup Has Three Outcomes—Are They Equally Likely?
You'll learn: Collect landing-position data and assign empirical probabilities.
Reason About a Fair Die Without Running an Experiment
3:47
Reason About a Fair Die Without Running an Experiment
You'll learn: Count favourable faces among six equally likely faces.
Count Letter Cards, Not Just Different Letters
3:52
Count Letter Cards, Not Just Different Letters
You'll learn: Use equally likely physical positions when a letter repeats.
Two Possible Results Do Not Automatically Mean Fifty-Fifty
4:03
Two Possible Results Do Not Automatically Mean Fifty-Fifty
You'll learn: Test whether equally likely outcomes are justified.
Why Experiment and Theory Can Give Different Answers
3:49
Why Experiment and Theory Can Give Different Answers
You'll learn: Compare relative frequency with the fair-model probability and discuss larger experiments.
A Coin and Die Have No Memory
3:49
A Coin and Die Have No Memory
You'll learn: Explain independence and the gambler’s fallacy.

Next topic

Using surveys and statistical evidence

4

Use a Survey to Estimate a Random Student’s Preference
4:03
Use a Survey to Estimate a Random Student’s Preference
You'll learn: Read a frequency table and find a probability for a randomly selected member of the observed group.
A Sample Can Suggest What a Larger Population Prefers
3:56
A Sample Can Suggest What a Larger Population Prefers
You'll learn: Scale sample proportions to estimate quantities for a whole school.
Estimate Sweet Colours and School Club Choices
3:47
Estimate Sweet Colours and School Club Choices
You'll learn: Calculate sample probabilities and scale proportions to population estimates.
Read a Tyre-Lifetime Table as Probability Evidence
3:43
Read a Tyre-Lifetime Table as Probability Evidence
You'll learn: Add relevant category frequencies and divide by the observed total.

Next topic

Sample spaces and events

4

List Every Possible Outcome Exactly Once
3:40
List Every Possible Outcome Exactly Once
You'll learn: Define a sample space S and its number of elements n(S).
The Question Determines the Detail in a Sample Space
3:52
The Question Determines the Detail in a Sample Space
You'll learn: Refine an outcome description to match what is recorded.
An Event Is a Selection of Outcomes
3:44
An Event Is a Selection of Outcomes
You'll learn: Represent an event as a subset of the sample space.
One Sample Space Can Record Numbers or Colours
3:57
One Sample Space Can Record Numbers or Colours
You'll learn: List the requested integer outcomes and separate physical balls from colour categories.